Most leading bookmakers offer in their slips options for betting on the correct score of tennis matches. In most tennis tournaments, the players need to win two sets for winning the match, which means that the possible outcomes in this bet are four – 2:0, 2:1, 1:2 and 0:2. In male Grand Slam tournaments the winner is determined by winning three sets, which increases the possibilities to six – 3:0, 3:1, 3:2, 2:3, 1:3 and 0:3.
This limited range of betting options has its advantages for building different betting strategies by which to get some profit. Of course, this way of betting is only for the players who strictly follow the betting discipline and have good money management.
One possible strategy is simply to make a database for each proposed by the bookmakers odds and all possible outcomes. So, let’s say the odds for a win of one player are 1.25 and for the other are 3.75. We can make a database with the outcomes of all matches with such odds and see that 2-0 have ended that number of matches, 2:1 another number of matches and so on.
Knowing the exact percentage of matches with one or the other outcome, we can make a comparison with the proposed by the bookmakers odds and see where we can find profit (if there is such). The idea is that if the first 100 matches with similar odds have given us profit, it is very likely that the other 100 to do the same.
Let’s take for example the coefficients 1.25 and 3.75. Bet365 proposals at this rate for an exact result are: 1.66 for 2-0, 3.75 for 2:1, 6 for 0:2 and 7.5 for 1:2. Looking at these odds, we can see that the bookmaker’s margin is a bit more than 16. This means that you have to comply with this margin and must comply percentages from your database not by 100%, but by 116%. This means that to make profit for betting on the correct score 2-0 you need at least 61% of the matches in your database to have ended with this result. For correct score 2:1, this percentage is 27%.
So, by comparing with the database and doing some math you can easily see where you can find and where you can’t find profit when you bet on the exact score of tennis matches.